Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 126,096
2 South Dakota 119,578
3 Utah 101,754
4 Rhode Island 101,066
5 Tennessee 99,195
6 Wisconsin 98,114
7 Iowa 97,399
8 Nebraska 94,526
9 Arizona 94,251
10 Arkansas 90,659
11 Oklahoma 90,567
12 Kansas 90,181
13 Indiana 88,899
14 Idaho 87,892
15 Alabama 86,993
16 Wyoming 86,256
17 Nevada 85,786
18 Mississippi 85,723
19 Illinois 85,173
20 Montana 84,163
21 Louisiana 80,039
22 Minnesota 79,497
23 New Mexico 78,668
24 California 77,725
25 Missouri 76,863
26 South Carolina 76,585
27 Georgia 75,772
28 Kentucky 74,836
29 Texas 74,509
30 Florida 73,987
31 Delaware 73,232
32 New Jersey 71,570
33 Ohio 71,524
34 Alaska 70,964
35 Massachusetts 69,136
36 Colorado 65,986
37 North Carolina 65,264
38 New York 65,229
39 Connecticut 65,133
40 West Virginia 61,836
41 Pennsylvania 61,190
42 Michigan 58,697
43 Maryland 54,648
44 Virginia 52,846
45 District of Columbia 48,542
46 New Hampshire 43,177
47 Washington 38,939
48 Puerto Rico 38,196
49 Oregon 31,881
50 Maine 25,488
51 Hawaii 17,291
52 Vermont 16,540

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Virginia 846
2 Rhode Island 825
3 Connecticut 822
4 California 811
5 South Carolina 770
6 Arizona 723
7 New York 682
8 New Hampshire 677
9 Delaware 663
10 Georgia 610
11 Oklahoma 565
12 Texas 524
13 Massachusetts 522
14 Louisiana 518
15 New Jersey 510
16 Kentucky 508
17 West Virginia 501
18 Wyoming 491
19 North Carolina 483
20 Mississippi 476
21 Tennessee 453
22 Florida 448
23 Nevada 434
24 Pennsylvania 423
25 Indiana 415
26 Ohio 414
27 Utah 412
28 Kansas 400
29 Alabama 398
30 Arkansas 377
31 District of Columbia 341
32 Maryland 341
33 New Mexico 327
34 Idaho 319
35 Illinois 317
36 Nebraska 301
37 Wisconsin 285
38 Montana 279
39 Iowa 269
40 Missouri 266
41 Colorado 262
42 Alaska 258
43 Maine 258
44 Washington 246
45 Vermont 216
46 Michigan 197
47 Puerto Rico 193
48 South Dakota 191
49 Minnesota 190
50 Oregon 162
51 North Dakota 156
52 Hawaii 69

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,309
2 New York 2,104
3 Massachusetts 1,994
4 Rhode Island 1,930
5 South Dakota 1,884
6 Connecticut 1,874
7 Mississippi 1,872
8 North Dakota 1,847
9 Louisiana 1,790
10 Illinois 1,590
11 Arizona 1,547
12 Pennsylvania 1,520
13 Michigan 1,474
14 Arkansas 1,453
15 New Mexico 1,419
16 Indiana 1,406
17 Iowa 1,373
18 Alabama 1,249
19 Nevada 1,231
20 Tennessee 1,228
21 District of Columbia 1,219
22 South Carolina 1,215
23 Kansas 1,209
24 Georgia 1,147
25 Texas 1,144
26 Florida 1,137
27 Maryland 1,099
28 Missouri 1,087
29 Minnesota 1,066
30 Delaware 1,048
31 Wisconsin 1,026
32 Montana 1,022
33 West Virginia 1,012
34 Nebraska 983
35 Colorado 950
36 Wyoming 950
37 Idaho 917
38 Ohio 884
39 California 870
40 North Carolina 781
41 Kentucky 780
42 Oklahoma 767
43 New Hampshire 689
44 Virginia 679
45 Puerto Rico 533
46 Washington 527
47 Utah 470
48 Oregon 430
49 Maine 386
50 Alaska 302
51 Vermont 261
52 Hawaii 226

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 17
2 Wyoming 16
3 Rhode Island 12
4 South Dakota 12
5 Arkansas 10
6 Mississippi 10
7 New Mexico 10
8 West Virginia 10
9 New York 9
10 South Carolina 9
11 California 8
12 Connecticut 8
13 Georgia 8
14 Indiana 8
15 Massachusetts 8
16 Oklahoma 7
17 Pennsylvania 7
18 District of Columbia 6
19 Florida 6
20 Maryland 6
21 Texas 6
22 Idaho 5
23 Kentucky 5
24 Ohio 5
25 Tennessee 5
26 North Carolina 4
27 Illinois 3
28 Minnesota 3
29 Nevada 3
30 New Jersey 3
31 Virginia 3
32 Wisconsin 3
33 Kansas 2
34 Maine 2
35 Michigan 2
36 New Hampshire 2
37 North Dakota 2
38 Utah 2
39 Washington 2
40 Colorado 1
41 Delaware 1
42 Iowa 1
43 Missouri 1
44 Montana 1
45 Nebraska 1
46 Oregon 1
47 Alabama 0
48 Alaska 0
49 Arizona 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 Puerto Rico 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 287,741 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 232,519 2 99
Bent Colorado 227,542 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 227,503 4 99
Norton Kansas 223,279 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 115,848 251 92
Richland South Carolina 77,451 1498 52
Orange California 71,582 1791 42
York South Carolina 71,030 1816 42
Pierce Washington 35,878 2883 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Grant Nebraska 6,421 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,330 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 968 1869 40
Richland South Carolina 919 1940 38
Orange California 780 2163 31
York South Carolina 726 2241 28
Pierce Washington 465 2625 16

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons